Thinking in bets : making smarter decisions when you don't have all the facts
Duke, Annie, 1965-2018
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"Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run"--
Main title:
Author:
Imprint:
New York : Portfolio/Penguin, 2018
Collation:
276 pages : illustations ; 22 cm.
Notes:
Includes bibliographical references (pages 241-266) and index.
Contents:
Machine generated contents note: ch. 1 Life Is Poker, Not Chess -- Pete Carroll and the Monday Morning Quarterbacks -- The hazards of resulting -- Quick or dead: our brains weren't built for rationality -- Two-minute warning -- Dr. Strangelove -- Poker vs. chess -- A lethal battle of wits -- "I'm not sure": using uncertainty to our advantage -- Redefining wrong -- ch. 2 Wanna Bet? -- Thirty days in Des Moines -- We've all been to Des Moines -- All decisions are bets -- Most bets are bets against ourselves -- Our bets are only as good as our beliefs -- Hearing is believing -- "They saw a game" -- The stubbornness of beliefs -- Being smart makes it worse -- Wanna bet? -- Redefining confidence -- ch. 3 Bet to Learn: Fielding the Unfolding Future -- Nick the Greek, and other lessons from the Crystal Lounge -- Outcomes are feedback -- Luck vs. skill: fielding outcomes -- Working backward is hard: the SnackWell's Phenomenon -- "If it weren't for luck, I'd win every one" --Contents note continued: All-or-nothing thinking rears its head again -- People watching -- Other people's outcomes reflect on us -- Reshaping habit -- "Wanna bet?" redux -- The hard way -- ch. 4 The Buddy System -- "Maybe you're the problem, do you think?" -- The red pill or the blue pill? -- Not all groups are created equal -- The group rewards focus on accuracy -- "One Hundred White Castles and a large chocolate shake": how accountability improves decision-making -- The group ideally exposes us to a diversity of viewpoints -- Federal judges: drift happens -- Social psychologists: confirmatory drift and Heterodox Academy -- Wanna bet (on science)? -- ch. 5 Dissent to Win -- CUDOS to a magician -- Mertonian communism: more is more -- Universalism: don't shoot the message -- Disinterestedness: we all have a conflict of interest, and it's contagious -- Organized skepticism: real skeptics make arguments and friends -- Communicating with the world beyond our group --Contents note continued: ch. 6 Adventures in Mental Time Travel -- Let Marty McFly run into Marty McFly -- Night Jerry -- Moving regret in front of our decisions -- A flat tire, the ticker, and a zoom lens -- "Yeah, but what have you done for me lately?" -- Tilt -- Ulysses contracts: time traveling to precommit -- Decision swear jar -- Reconnaissance: mapping the future -- Scenario planning in practice -- Backcasting: working backward from a positive future -- Premortems: working backward from a negative future -- Dendrology and hindsight bias (or, Give the chainsaw a rest).
ISBN:
9780735216358
Dewey class:
658.40353
Language:
English
BRN:
350107
More Information:
| Location | Collection | Call number | Status/Desc |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beaumaris Library | Adult Non Fiction - Computers and Business | 658.40353 DUK | Available |